Data Briefs

Uncertain Tweets Get More Likes, Reposts, and Replies

Tweets expressing uncertainty receive higher engagement across likes, reposts, and replies in Arabic-language discussions about Lebanon on X.

Mohamed Soufan

02 Apr 2026 — 1 min read

Tweets expressing linguistic uncertainty receive higher engagement than certainty-framed tweets across all interaction types in Arabic-language discussions about Lebanon on X (formerly Twitter). An analysis of 16,695 Arabic-language tweets collected over a 35-day period shows that tweets containing uncertainty markers receive more likes, reposts, and replies on average than tweets expressing certainty. The difference is most pronounced in replies, suggesting that uncertain language encourages more conversational interaction.

Key finding

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Tweets expressing uncertainty receive higher engagement across all interaction types, with likes about 36.4% higher, reposts 33.3% higher, and replies 50.0% higher than certainty-framed tweets.

Data

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16,695 Arabic-language tweets collected over 35 days from X (formerly Twitter).

Figure

Bar chart showing uncertain tweets receive more likes, reposts, and replies than certain tweets in Arabic-language discussions about Lebanon, with the largest difference in replies. — Average likes, reposts, and replies for uncertain and certain tweets in a dataset of 16,695 Arabic-language tweets about Lebanon collected over 35 days on X. Source: Soufan (2026).

Uncertain Tweets Receive 25% More Engagement
Concept: Uncertainty–Reply Asymmetry
Paper summary
Full analysis
Full paper (arXiv)
Data collection and analysis pipeline (HackerNoon)

30% of Arabic Tweets About Lebanon Contain Uncertainty

Nearly one-third of Arabic-language tweets about Lebanon contain linguistic uncertainty, showing that tentative language is a common feature of online discussions.

Uncertain Tweets Get 25% More Engagement on X

Analysis of Arabic-language tweets shows that tweets expressing uncertainty receive higher engagement, particularly in replies, on X.

Engagement comparison chart showing uncertain tweets receive more replies, retweets, and likes than certain tweets, illustrating the uncertainty-reply asymmetry.

Uncertainty-Reply Asymmetry

The uncertainty-reply asymmetry is a concept introduced by Mohamed Soufan describing how uncertain statements generate more replies and conversational engagement in online discourse and social media.

Uncertainty Drives More Replies in Arabic X Discussions on Lebanon

An analysis of 16,695 Arabic-language tweets about Lebanon finds that posts containing linguistic uncertainty receive approximately 25% higher engagement, particularly in replies.